This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Brazil. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will attempt to get my 3rd seat this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, and then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your cash game play for me this week. On the betting line he is currently -1100 and he is -206 to win ITD. He’s additionally +110 to win in round 1. He’s my favorite play on the plank, the only real issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I can for sure match him in. For GPPs it will be harder to have 6 wins paying up for his huge salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I simply will not make it a priority for him into those championship lineups, but cash I want that -1100 on my team for a safe win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I’d like to target. My preferred drama is Spann but Little Nog is in play as well. The line for FDGTD is -280 and that I believe Spann could win via KO or sub, and it might be 1st round too. I believe he could compete with the 9k fighters and that he is a man that kicks off them the 1st location lineup. Little Nog is the better fighter however and Spann doesn’t have a great chin himself, so I really could see Nog winning through KO. I don’t think that is likely, therefore I will not be heavy on himbut he can make my player pool. Spann is a man I think is in play in all formats and I will attempt to be obese on him. It is more of a grin on Little Nog at this time, but I really don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog drama of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He’s my preferred play in this fight and his previous scores pretty much make him a guy you can not fade if you’re MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling that he did in his past fights vs Aldo, but those numbers are difficult to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have every totaled over 100 DK points. From latest fight to his introduction, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That’s pretty amazing. I believe he has a good chance of upsetting the legend and possibly getting a finish for another high score. I don’t believe Aldo is a great matchup for him to show that 100+ stage ceiling however at $7.8k we do not require that many points. I believe IF he wins, he easily pays off that salary.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s no way I am paying $8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of the week and if it disturbs me afterward it burns me. I don’t see that being true though even if she wins. I expect this struggle to stay standing and I really don’t see her striking at a speed to pay off her cost without getting a finish. I don’t believe she gets that finish so even if she wins I believe she scores nearer to 75 DK points and at her wages that won’t wind up on the optimal lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I won’t get any exposure to Carolina.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
Read more: f1radical.com
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